Heavy Rains Due to Cause Flooding
The National Weather Service has issued a flood watch for the entire state of Connecticut beginning Monday Afternoon and continuing through at least the day on Tuesday.
The GFS and NAM models are indicating that a slow moving cold front and storm will affect New England on Monday and Tuesday. This storm,is forecast to form along the East Coast and tap into a large amount of moisture over the Caribbean bringing 36 - 48 hours of heavy rain to our area Monday and Tuesday. At this time it appears that most of New England and especially Southern New England will receive 3 - 6 inches of rain. However, heavier rain has the potential of occurring over parts of Southern New England resulting in as much as 7 inches of rain in some areas and spot amounts up to 8 inches are possible in a few locations. The most likely area for the heaviest rain is currently forecast to be in Southern and Southwestern CT.
This heavy rain is forecast to cause widespread urban and small stream flooding beginning Monday Afternoon and continuing Monday night and Tuesday. Small rivers (which are currently near bankfull but falling) are forecast to turn around and begin rising quickly late Monday afternoon and are forecast to reach flood stage by late Monday night.
Towns can expect widespread urban, small stream and river flooding from this event. Towns should also keep an eye on any dams that are either in poor condition or under repair. Other hazards from this heavy rain may include mudslides and the failure of some roads and bridges from fast flowing water resulting from the flooding. Widespread basement flooding is also likely due to the saturated ground conditions.
As the runoff from the heavy rains expected on Monday and Tuesday flows into the larger rivers, the levels of the Connecticut, Farmington and Housatonic rivers (which are currently near flood stage and falling) are forecast to also turn around and begin rising Monday night, reaching minor to moderate flooding levels between Tuesday Afternoon and Wednesday morning. At these levels flooding can be expected that is similar to the flooding earlier this week to roads and parks. There is also the likely potential for more serious flooding of these rivers by Wednesday night, Thursday and Friday if we do receive the expected 3 - 6 inches of rain in these river basins.
Towns are advised to begin preparations for a significant flood event and to monitor the latest forecasts. The Department of Emergency Management and Homeland Security will issue another update on this flooding event on Monday morning at 8:00 AM.
Peter J. Tesei
First Selectman
Town of Greenwich
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